Prediction Markets
Forecast · Earn Coins · Track Accuracy
Balance
1,000 pts
Active Markets
No open positions. Browse markets below to place your first bet.
Your Accuracy
—
accuracy rate
Bets placed0
Resolved0
Brier score—
Correct0
Open Markets
35 markets··
My Bets
No bets placed yet. Browse open markets to place your first prediction.
Leaderboard
Forecaster Rankings
Rank #14 of 21| # | Username | Accuracy | Preds | Brier | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | JustBull | 74% | 70 | 0.205 | 4 |
| #2 | WiseLion | 71% | 90 | 0.366 | 7 |
| #3 | HardPuma | 68% | 94 | 0.268 | 7 |
| #4 | CalmTiger | 65% | 31 | 0.258 | 8 |
| #5 | HardLion | 63% | 89 | 0.395 | 7 |
| #6 | PureShark | 61% | 50 | 0.188 | 7 |
| #7 | CalmViper | 60% | 50 | 0.312 | 2 |
| #8 | SwiftHawk | 60% | 43 | 0.341 | -- |
| #9 | JustCrane | 59% | 56 | 0.172 | 3 |
| #10 | IronBear | 56% | 38 | 0.447 | 1 |
| #11 | WiseLynx | 55% | 70 | 0.362 | 8 |
| #12 | DeepTiger | 52% | 72 | 0.278 | 8 |
| #13 | DarkEagle | 52% | 84 | 0.248 | 8 |
| #14 | Youyou | 52% | 0 | 0.320 | -- |
| #15 | FastHawk | 51% | 63 | 0.314 | 1 |
| #16 | ClearRaven | 49% | 79 | 0.252 | 1 |
| #17 | SwiftEagle | 49% | 93 | 0.411 | 3 |
| #18 | CalmViper | 48% | 41 | 0.201 | -- |
| #19 | OpenWren | 47% | 56 | 0.345 | -- |
| #20 | PureLion | 46% | 23 | 0.227 | 6 |
| #21 | SharpRaven | 45% | 28 | 0.357 | 3 |
Brier score: lower is better. Rankings update as accuracy improves.
Tools
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Compute the optimal bet size that maximizes long-run log-growth of wealth.
Probability 1–99
2.0 = even, 3.0 = 2:1
Estimated advantage
K = (b×p − q) / b | b = odds−1, p = win rate, q = 1−p
Full Kelly Fraction
10.0%
Full Kelly10.0%
Half Kelly (recommended)5.0%
Quarter Kelly (conservative)2.5%
Full Kelly
10.0%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Quarter Kelly
2.5%
EV / unit
+10.0%
Kelly Criterion maximizes log-growth of wealth over time. Full Kelly is theoretically optimal but causes high variance. Half Kelly retains ~75% of growth with smoother results. Quarter Kelly suits uncertain edge estimates.
All prediction markets are simulated for educational purposes.