Macro Research
CYCLES · INDICATORS · POLICY · GROWTH
US Real GDP Growth
2.50%
+0.2% vs prev
CPI (YoY)
2.80%
-0.1% vs prev
Unemployment
3.90%
+0.1% vs prev
Fed Funds Rate
5.25%
0.0% vs prev
Growth
Real GDP Growth (YoY %)
Steady expansion above trend growth of ~1.8%. Driven by resilient consumer spending and services sector.
Activity
Manufacturing PMI
Barely in expansion territory. New orders sub-index at 52.4 signals modest improvement ahead.
Production
Industrial Production (YoY %)
Recovery from 2023 contraction. Semiconductor and auto sectors leading rebound.
Consumer
Retail Sales (YoY %)
Normalizing from post-pandemic highs. Real (inflation-adjusted) growth near +0.7%.
Composite
Growth Composite Overlay
Data shown is simulated for educational purposes. Sources modeled after BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, ISM, Conference Board, NY Fed. Last updated: Q1 2026.