The Market's Vital Signs
Macro traders watch economic data releases like a doctor monitors vital signs. These numbers reveal the health of the economy and drive the Fed's decisions — which in turn move every asset class.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - Measures total economic output; released quarterly - Above 2% annual growth is considered healthy - Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP = technical recession
CPI (Consumer Price Index) - Measures the change in prices consumers pay for goods and services - Fed targets ~2% annual inflation; above target rate hike pressure - Reported monthly; a high print can trigger immediate bond sell-offs
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) - Monthly count of jobs added outside farming - Released the first Friday of every month — the single most market-moving data release globally - Strong NFP + high CPI = Fed tightening pressure
PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) - Survey of purchasing managers about new orders, inventories, and employment - Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction - Leading indicator — it predicts future activity before GDP confirms it